Climate Letter #652

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Monthly CO2 report.  The April average was 407.42 ppm, up 4.16 from April of a year ago.  That is a very ugly comparison, one of the worst ever.  For a broader and more detailed view click on Interactive Plots and scroll down.  Note that April 2015 was itself a strong month to be up against.  Now the daily numbers show that May is leveling off, which is normal.  The May average should end at around 407.75, up not quite 4 ppm from last May.   We will then be looking at what could be a record gain from one seasonal peak to the next.  April by itself was a big factor in that gain, and we need to to hear someone explain how it happened, and whether it will continue.  A realized annual gain of 4 ppm is almost equivalent to seeing total elimination of the natural 50% (or so) sink that usually cuts the impact of all human-caused emissions, which we have counted on to continue.  We may be left with a carbon budget that is blowing away much faster than before, potentially twice as fast.
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The all-important future of coal-fired power plant construction in Asia.  The president of the World Bank, who has expressed himself before on this subject, puts this situation in stark perspective.  The plans of just four countries, if fulfilled, will result in additional carbon emissions sufficient to almost fully offset the reduction plans that were established in Paris.  Compared with what we saw in the story above, this is a more visible type of assault on the carbon budget, one completely under human control.
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One more look at the Canadian wildfire situation.  Here is a clear explanation of how El Nino and global warming worked together to form a perfect storm.  This time there was an unusual heatwave involved, plus a large city that got in the way.
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An interesting new scientific theory.  This one reveals a connection between long-term changes in surface water temperatures in the Pacific, or the “PDO,”  and the air temperatures in the Arctic that affect the melting rate of Arctic sea ice.  The study includes an observation that recent melting could have been even worse if the PDO had been in a different phase, one which it will eventually return to.
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A warning to oil companies to change their business models.  This comes from a well-respected source in the UK, in the form of friendly advice.  Companies should stop exploring for more reserves since they already have more than enough, and their time to keep on selling is short.  The story doesn’t even mention the surprising popularity of electric vehicles.
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A newly discovered cheap material that will improve the efficiency and durability of solar panels:
Carl

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