A new study tells how the Colorado River is losing its volume of flow and why the trend will continue (Inside Climate News). The study helps resolve a “longstanding disagreement in previous estimates of the river’s sensitivity to rising temperatures,” finding that flows are presently declining at a rate of about 9.3 percent for every 1C increase in global temperature. Previous estimates had ranged from 2 pct to 15 pct. The new estimate is backed by a major USGS effort to gather data, the substance of which also provided the exact mechanism behind the effect, which is likely to continue for as long as warming continues. It’s not just a Colorado problem. “Many water-stressed regions around the world depend on runoff from seasonally snow-covered mountains.” Premature melting of the snowpack removes a “protective shield” that otherwise limits evaporation.
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In another methane study, researchers say that methane released from deep, ancient carbon reservoirs because of global warming is unlikely to make it all the way to the atmosphere (University of Rochester). This study is related to the one written up in yesterday’s letter, issued from the same university, but here the emphasis is on deeply buried methane sources of huge size that have raised legitimate fears of disruptive behavior. Testing procedures derived from ice core samples led to this conclusion: “In the case of methane hydrates, if the methane is released in the deep ocean, most of it is dissolved and oxidized by ocean microbes before it ever reaches the atmosphere. If the methane in permafrost forms deep enough in the soil, it may be oxidized by bacteria that eat the methane, or the carbon in the permafrost may never turn into methane and may instead be released as carbon dioxide.” This may be a relief, but we still need to be wary about human-related sources that are not subject to buffering.
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A frightening appraisal of China’s Belt and Roads Initiative (Yale Climate Connections). “It’s the sort of elephant in the room…..When we look at any measure of global emissions or any scenario of how we reach the Paris targets, it relies a whole lot on China’s transitioning away from its reliance on coal. So the Belt and Road, to the extent it has really significant impact on climate change and its trajectory – is the extent to which China is using it to export its capacity in the coal sector…..China’s BRI has locked in fossil fuels and their climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions, not for years, but for decades…..Once you’ve invested and you have it and it’s working and people are employed and depending on it, it becomes a commitment.” The plans are for real, but the execution has not yet happened.
–For much more information about this mammoth infrastructure project, which has largely flown under the radar in the US, visit: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/02/key-articles-on-chinas-enormous-belt-and-road-initiative/
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The outlook for more plastic production in the US and what it means for climate change (Earth Institute – Columbia University). All the critical information is available in this report. Just like the situation in the above story, huge new plans for future production are in place and awaiting final approval for construction. Once built, their future emissions and all the other devastating effects are locked in for decades.
Carl