Global temperature trend updated. This link has the best available chart for showing where we are with respect to reaching the unwanted 2C threshold. It uses an early baseline, 1880-1909, which is close enough to actual pre-industrial. and shows that we are exactly half-way to the target. A large majority of that gain has been realized over just the last fifty years, in a move that follows almost a perfect straight-line pathway. The second chart analyzes the temporary effect of the recent strong El Nino trajectory, which is now on a downslope. We can look for yearly results on the top chart to fall back below the yellow line again, possibly as soon as next year, as La Nina’s cooling effect takes charge. Still, we can’t ignore the fact that 2016 is topping out at a level that pushes hard on the upper edges of the main trendline.
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An unusual study provides a whole new reason for reduced burning of fossil fuels. Fertilizers produce air pollution that reacts chemically with the combustion products of fossil fuels in a way that creates an entirely new form of microscopic aerosols, which have been calculated to cause lung disease that is killing over three million persons per year and getting worse. Something has to give, and the best choice seems to lie with reducing fossil fuel combustion. This study should get serious attention.
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What should Shell Oil do about its business model? The company is making noises about investing in renewable energy but still sees a big future for oil and gas that will require the bulk of its capital resources. Protecting dividends is a matter of highest priority, which 97% of shareholders agree to. It is a kind of no-man’s-land for every company in the business as pressures for change mount from all sides.
How insurance companies are evaluating their investment exposure, with nearly one-half trillion dollars on the line:
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How cheap can solar electricity get? It depends on a number of factors, some of which, like the true life expectancy of panels, is not yet well-known. There are good prospects for production costs soon going below two cents per kwh in some places.
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A new discovery enables spectacular gains in solar cell efficiency. The theoretical limit of 32% for ordinary PV collectors could be more than doubled by avoiding energy losses carried off by escaping heat. Some very high-tech materials are involved. “All of the energy of the photons gets converted to heat. Then, that heat gets re-emitted as light but, thanks to the nanophotonic structure, is converted to just the colors that match the PV cell’s peak efficiency.” Power can be produced this way even when the sky is cloudy. The concept has been proven, but there is still much work to do before useful products are ready for manufacturing. For credibility, this work was done at MIT.
Carl