El Nino update. This Australian agency is possibly the world’s best forecasting service. You can see how many different factors enter into the equation. The result: “BoM points out that it is ‘unusual to have such a broad extent of warmth across the tropical Pacific’; the last time this occurred was during the El Niño of 1997–98.” That means a major event should unfold over the rest of this year, including many extreme weather events and a boost in global warming for a strong new record—just in time to influence the negotiations in Paris.
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How global temperature is determined, year by year. All of the main recognized factors are singled out in a neat series of charts, going back to 1880, then synthesized. Greenhouse gas is of course the champion, but does not stand alone. Note that deforestation is defined only by its albedo effect, not its emissions, which are a considerable component of greenhouse gas. And check out the importance of aerosols, which have a quite large cooling effect that will quickly be reduced in sync with any decline of fossil fuel emissions.
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The “business as usual” (BAU) concept of fossil fuel burning should be redefined. The world is not going to burn all of the fossil fuel deposits that are in place, simply because doing so would make no sense economically in view of the alternatives now available. That means the CO2 level is not likely to double from here, and the global temperature is not going to spike by 5 or 6 degrees C, unless some kind of unforseen tipping point has already been breached. The new “business as usual” will still push CO2 past 450 ppm and temperatures past 2C, which will yet cause plenty of unacceptable damage, maybe more than we have previously realized, and it’s already starting to happen. There is no less of a need for hastening change than was argued under the old BAU scenario. This post, based on the Bloomberg report, offers a new set of guidelines for formalizing a revision.
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A new study reveals the effect of large-scale ocean eddies. These eddies add significantly to our understanding of how heat and carbon are delivered from the surface to deeper parts of the ocean, and how they spread horizontally as well. The heat distribution, which need not be perfectly regular, has an important effect on various climate conditions in the atmosphere above.
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Bill McKibben writes about the changing world of energy utilities, in the New Yorker. This is a lengthy piece which you could find interesting, that might even give you some usable ideas.