Upcoming assessment of the 2C “goal.” This subject is finally getting the level of attention it deserves, with a substantive report due out later this week. The main alternative, 1.5C, is usually promoted on the basis of comparing the levels of damage that are projected under each of these conditions, which inevitably is subject to enough uncertainty to provide plenty of wiggle room. I would like to see more emphasis placed on questions of risk, especially risks of unknown developments, which by definition are, well, unknown. Such risks, usually referred to within the context of tipping points, can be artfully described in terms of genuine catastrophe. Unless the cost is absolutely prohibitive, why take on exposure to even a small chance of any such kind of risk being realized?
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Extra comment: How can a 1.5C limit actually be achieved in reality? I see two basic requirements. One, the developing countries, where people have lived hand to mouth for thousands of years, will have to be patient in their quest for higher living standards for a few more decades, as new sources of energy are being introduced. Second, the developed countries would have to set goals for replacing fossil fuels with clean alternatives on a scale somewhat resembling mobilization for war. Because attractive new energy sources are now in place and ready to roll it is all doable within thirty years or less, at a cost that is not at all prohibitive, but signs of willingness are still rather lacking.
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New temperature record for the Antarctic Peninsula at 63.5F. Longer-term trends for the peninsula region are comparable to those of the entire Arctic, while most of the continent otherwise remains quite cold on the surface—but subject to warming at the edges from below.
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Big contract for perovskite solar cells. This is exciting because perovskite solar, for all its high promise, has been thought to not yet be commercially ready due to relatively low efficiency. This may have taken a change for the better. “Dyesol also continues to make pleasing progress in the scale-up of the perovskite based technology and looks forward to reporting the status of its next technical milestone next month.” The technology benefits from production costs that are much lower than those of prevailing silicon cells, which are presently the most efficient.
Here is some additional information about perovskite cells that is very interesting, concerning the prospect of marrying layers of perovskite to silicon and getting benefits from both.
“Climate chaos” arrives in Chile. Since this horrendous situation has not had much publicity you may not be aware of it..
Carl