Climate Letter #260

Climate Letter #260      October 22, 2014

An emissions policy recommendation.  This is a joint effort from a leading scientist (Michael Mann) and a professor of philosophy, very clearly stated.  Based on all I have learned about the science in the past couple of years I would judge that part, from Mann, to be very realistic about what to expect in the future due to the warming process.  What he is saying does not reflect the common view that it’s OK to let the global temperature rise as high as 2C above the old baseline in the next few decades.  That is because doing so would virtually assure a continuation up to 3C not long after.  This is based on the principle of thermal inertia, which is often overlooked.  A 3C outcome, as described, could well be catastrophic.  The implication is that we should allow no more than a gain of maybe 1.4C in the next few decades, v. the current 0.9, and that “target,” or benchmark, is rapidly approaching.  The ethical side of this story should be obvious to anyone, but caring is another matter.

Extra comment:  Thermal inertia ends when the planet starts delivering as much heat to space as it collects from the sun.  That will not likely happen until after the CO2 level in the atmosphere (now near 400 ppm) and that of other greenhouse gases actually start to come down, and maybe quite a bit.  As long as the oceans, etc., are adding anything at all to their heat content the atmosphere will have a tendency to get warmer.

China’s coal use down.  Not much, but it’s a start.  This is one of the greatest of all contributors to global CO2 growth.

Oil industry developments.  There is a lot of information in this article about how things are changing among the big boys.  It could lead to less lobbying pressure from public companies as they wind down.  Also, big state-owned companies tend to be less efficient and thus have higher costs.  That can be of help to renewable energy competitors.

U.S. CO2 emissions.  The 2007 peak still stands, but last winter’s polar vortex caused a spike in 2013 that could show up again in this year’s figures.

Advanced solar technology.  This is all about management.  The author, who is quite excited, seems to have a good understanding of what it all means.

Carl