Update on the warming “hiatus.” A new study says it could (15% chance) last another five years, on top of the 15 years already on the books. It is now clear that this is governed by the processes that move heat from the surface of the ocean, where it is first collected, to deep or even very deep levels. The processes themselves are not completely understood, or even recognized, but we can see that sometimes they are speeding up and at other times slowing down, over cycles that may cover decades, and maybe more. Right now they are speeding up. Once there is a net slowdown more heat will necessarily remain and pile up at the surface, where it can interact with the atmosphere more intensely. For this to occur, It is not necessary for heat to “come back up” from the deeper parts of the ocean; all that is required is a reduction in the pace or volume of that going down. (Heat movement closer to the surface does have a full two-way up and down oscillation, as revealed by El Nino/La Nina cycles.)
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Where the cost of solar energy could be headed—amazing! This comes from a study made in Germany. Of course it is only a forecast, not a done deal, but even as such it gives deniers something more that maybe needs to be vigorously denied.
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Who is financing the oil industry these days? And who is buying the stocks and bonds being liquidated by portfolio disinvestment policies? Here is one answer. Blackstone sees today’s low prices as an opportunity, but maybe fails to have noticed that the world is different (see above), and should soon become even more so.
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More Siberian blow-holes are being discovered. An active search is underway for older craters believed to have been caused by methane explosions. There are four good fits, and perhaps thirty more possibles, of varying ages and sizes.
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Antarctic ice shelves are in trouble. Larsen C is now heading towards a break-up while several even larger ones are gathering speed. This post includes a great map showing in color the location of all the major shelves and their sizes. Shelves provide resistance to the outward movement of inland glaciers.
Carl