Climate Letter #1130

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“The Ocean Never Forgets.”  This essay from a science magazine makes a point that is simple and obvious, yet often overlooked.  About 97% of the effects of greenhouse gas or climate change are buried in the oceans’ depths, with no possible escape except by a painfully long and slow process.  The buried effect is mainly composed of heat content, acidification and reduction of oxygen, all of which have adverse effects on populations of marine life.  Plus sea level rise, much of which will be directly attributed to the warming of ocean waters along with the melting caused by warmer air above.
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New studies show how ill effects are amplified when temperature and precipitation are both increasing.  The result is an assortment of unexpected problems in some places as summer rainfall increases at a faster rate than temperature.  The post has several links that are worth looking at for expanded information.
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What is gained by limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5C instead of 2.0C?  One group of researchers focused just on the effects of sea level rise.  “They concluded that by 2150, the seemingly small difference between an increase of 1.5 and 2.0 C would mean the permanent inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60,000 who live on small island nations.”  What is interesting is that the amounts of sea level rise they are predicting in each case, which are disclosed at the end of the story, are quite conservative compared with many other estimates, but five million displaced persons is still a pretty high number for a result.
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Natural gas as a source of energy is as bad for climate as coal, maybe worse (Yale e360).  Bill McKibben makes the case for why this is so and also describes how the myth to the contrary has widely taken hold.  The CO2 emissions from burning gas are only about half as great as those from coal, per unit of energy produced.  The problem is leakage, before anything is burned.  Coal doesn’t leak into the atmosphere but natural gas does, and what leaks is methane, which is an extremely powerful greenhouse gas in its own right.  “But any methane that escapes unburned into the atmosphere on the way to the power plant warms the planet very effectively — so effectively that if you leak more than 2 or 3 percent it’s worse for climate change than coal…..most studies show that the leakage rate is at least 3 percent and probably higher.”  There are many places where it is routine for leakage to occur.  I believe McKibben is right.  Furthermore, in the last decade the level of methane in the atmosphere has increased just as rapidly as CO2, with much of the influence just from this leakage.
–You can use this site to retrieve charted historical data for methane and other gases:
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Monthly global average temperature figures charted from 2015.  The “seasonality effect” is all due to the cyclical impact of El Nino and La Nina, which varies from year to year, is warmest in February/March, and is now on the cool side.  Note that the baseline used here is for some reason 1951-80.  More realistically, “February temperature was +1.06°C relative to the 1880-1920 base period that provides our best estimate of pre-industrial global temperature.”
Carl

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