The outlook for extreme weather events is definitely troublesome (LA Times). That is the understanding gained from a new study that has looked at eight different types of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. The basic conclusion is that any increase in temperature will add to the total number of extreme events, just not of the same kind, or in the same way, in all different places. We have seen it like that with one degree so far of global warming, we can expect much more on the way to the Paris limit of two degrees, and then still more if and when that is breached.
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So does Earth have an ideal temperature? Here is a story that digs into that question with the views of several scientists. Their main thought is that if you give all species and ecosystems enough time to evolve and adjust they will end up adapting in a way that makes them happy even after big changes in overall climate. Unfortunately that is not true for beings living today who have already adapted. Who wants to go all the way back to the Ice Ages, and who is looking forward to the coming rise in extreme weather events, or rising sea level, or intensified drought cycles, etc?
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A new global temperature update from James Hansen. This one has a neat way of showing how the El Nino and La Nina effects in Pacific water temperatures have influenced the pattern of air temperatures for the last five years. The La Nina now in place is quite moderate so far, with no clear sign of what comes next. Note that the month of January would show an increase of 1.05C if charted on top of a pre-industrial baseline, not the one Hansen uses..
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Researchers have learned something new about Earth’s carbon cycle. Part of that cycle has long been known to go deep underground, moving very slowly on a geological timetable. It can fluctuate enough to cause major shifts in atmospheric CO2 levels over eons. Scientists have learned some interesting new things about the way changes in the ocean floor have an effect on carbon storage that produces cycles with a regular periodicity of 26 million years. This may help to explain why “Several geological phenomena including extinctions, volcanism, salt deposits and atmospheric carbon dioxide fluctuations reconstructed independently from the geological record all display 26 million-year cycles.”
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There is also new information pertaining to a different part of the carbon cycle, involving the behavior of tiny organisms at the surface. They multiply and pull extra amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere when unusually heavy loads of dust drift into ocean waters. Scientists have learned more about the origin of that dust, information which was highly unexpected. They show how an example of that process helped to drop the planet out of the Pliocene and into the Ice Ages, or Pleistocene, which humans have managed to completely reverse over the last two hundred years. “The future climate could look like the Pliocene Epoch, which was 5.3 million to 2.5 million years ago, said Pullen, who is a geologist.” (That’s if we hurry our effort to stop adding still more.)
Carl