Report of an excellent new study about the making of projections for sea level rise. The main point is that much will depend on a process called hydrofracturing, involving the formation and possibly rapid collapse of ice cliffs over 300 feet high. This subject of study is relatively new, with many details yet to be confirmed, which means forecasts will not gain much in the way of accuracy until around mid-century. For now we are left with plausible but uncertain forecasts that range from two feet of rise all the way up to eight feet by the end of the current century. The authors have some common sense recommendations for what to do about this situation.
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–The full study is available at this link, with open access:
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A new study adds new information about the dynamics of how the ice shelf buttressing effect can be weakened. The researchers learned that thinning or even small changes on the outer portions of a large ice shelf can alter the power of the entire shelf to hold back the creeping speed of adjacent glaciers that are backed up on land. The timing of any eventual collapse would thus be moved forward.
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An attribution report about Hurricane Harvey and other recent extreme weather events. The science of attribution of severe weather effects to climate change may be hard to explain to non-scientists but scientists have increasingly gained confidence in their results. For Harvey the downpour was made 15% more intense and the chance of it happening three times more likely than it would have been in an earlier era. Much more in the story.
–A separate report on how climate change is behind the acceleration of wildfires:
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The impact of climate change on the nutritional value of food crops. This story in a science magazine summarizes the progress that has been made in 2017 in this important field of study, revealing how much certain worries have grown. There is an effect on animals just the same as the one on humans.
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Here is the Arctic Report Card for 2017. as constructed by NOAA and other agencies of the US government. The presentation is eminently reader-friendly, so you can move from the highlights to any desired level of detail on each particular item of interest. The foremost conclusion is that there is no course in sight for turning back from the enormous changes that are taking place.
Carl