Climate Letter #1062

Interview with a scientist who does research on Earth’s environmental history.  The main objective is to figure out things like what CO2 levels were like at various times in the ancient past, the temperatures and other climate conditions associated with those levels, and what kinds of plants and animals were found in the studied locations.  There are no direct measurements available but useful clues can be obtained from analyzing fossil remnants of various life forms that are found.  We need to know as much as possible about these things in order to better understand the vast and irreversible changes in CO2 that have recently been put in place, and are continuing.  All of the answers currently available are full of uncertainties that in principle can be reduced.

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The connection between CO2 increases and temperature increases has just been treated to an unfavorable revision.  This post by Tim Radford reviews the study, reported in this letter yesterday, that changes the way we should perceive the risk of rising temperatures in the immediate future.  In this case the uncertainties are being reduced by improvements in actual measurements and observations and the way they have been most successfully integrated into specific scientific models.
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Gases now employed in air conditioning equipment need to be phased out more quickly.  These gases, which solved the ozone hole problem, are unacceptable because of their virulent greenhouse effects.  The technology needed for their replacement has been developed and preliminary agreements are set but more action is still needed on several levels.  Meanwhile the demand for air conditioning is sharply rising.
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Some studies are saying that fire conditions in California in the future are likely to get worse.  In one of them, “The authors predict that over the next 20 years, California could see a 10 to 15 percent decrease in rainfall on average.”
Carl

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