Climate Letter #1050

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Spain and Portugal are struggling with extreme drought.  “Spain has since 1980 shown signs of climate change, which have increased since 2000….The country’s climate tends to have more subtropical characteristics. Higher temperatures and rarer and more intense rains. So climate-related risks—heatwaves and rain and droughts and floods, will increase in the coming decades.”  For many individuals this is a catastrophic level of climate change, and it only took one degree of global warming.

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The so-called temperature hiatus from 1998-2012 now has a complete explanation, showing how it never even existed.  More accurate data from the Arctic corrects mistaken estimates that were previously employed. The Arctic was actually warming at five times the global rate during that period, which was completely unknown until now.
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The economic effect of higher CO2 levels on agriculture has been recalculated.  It is no longer viewed as a net positive because of how it stimulates increased plant growth.  Science has now found that higher temperature by itself, also caused by the rise in CO2, has negative effects on crop yields.  The conclusion was based on a meta-analysis of 1010 previous studies of yield response to changing climate conditions.
–The full study can be viewed at  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01792-x
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Insurance companies have had unacceptable losses in the last six months.  Their risk assumptions are likely to change, resulting in sharply higher rates.  Banks also need to consider more conservative lending practices and government aid policies will come under review.  The cost of climate change is beginning to hit home for everyone, requiring many kinds of adjustments (Thomson Reuters Foundation).
–This study about the frequency and intensity of future thunderstorms is of no help:
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Ocean kelp forests are disappearing because of higher water temperatures.  The devastation is completed when sea urchins move in and chew up the remnants, preventing recovery.  The loss of these large ecosystems, happening across the world, is comparable in many ways to that of coral reefs.
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Utilities can now save money by shutting down existing coal and nuclear facilities.  Their operating costs alone exceed the total cost of building and operating new wind or solar plants in many locations.  That is where the trend of falling costs has taken the latter, and it continues.
Carl

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