Climate Letter #1032

New evidence is found showing rapid breakdown of West Antarctic ice sheets in the past.  The evidence is in the form of markings left by a multiplicity of ice bergs formed when tall cliffs of ice broke apart.  The situation that led to this behavior is now being duplicated, adding to the possibility of accelerated sea level rise in the near future.

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–A separate study, much more conventional in tone, explains why other research in the past few years requires the IPCC to raise its sea level forecasts that are based on different scenarios for future global warming prospects.  The danger of ice cliff breakdown is mentioned, but only as a more distant possibility—“It’s a new twist for ice loss, but we also have to wait for results to come in.  This is new science, and it’s evolving.”  The above story could be a sign that results are already coming in?
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A somewhat shocking report provides reasons for doubting the accuracy of the conventional way that past temperatures of ocean water have long been calculated.  The researchers have found evidence that the oxygen content of foramanifera shells is not reliable as a long-term thermometer, and tends to exaggerate the degree of ancient planetary heating as currently interpreted.  The effect is more applicable to deep-time paleo records than to events of the last ten million years or so.  We’ll have to see if there are any challenges.
–This link will take you to the full report, which has open access.  At first glance this is a quite credible piece of work.  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01225-9
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How the impact of water scarcity produces consequences that extend far beyond the immediate effects, a report from the World Bank.
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A closeup example of the above, showing how people in India who are subject to paralyzing drought face impossibly difficult decisions (a story in pictures from the New York Times).
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The Yellowstone supervolcano had a strong effect on Earth’s climate.  That happened 630,000 years ago, and there were actually two separate major eruptions 170 years apart.  Scientists have found a way to make unusually close measurements of the dates involved, and also the amount of cooling due to the ash clouds.

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