A new study deals with the outlook fo wildfires in the US. A bioclimatologist said the paper makes a valuable point: “Forest density and climate change have converged to vastly increase catastrophic wildfire frequency and size in a way a that is entirely out of human control.” Since increases in frequency and intensity are inevitable the best we can do is find better ways to adapt.
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A discussion about climate sensitivity issues. There is still some uncertainty about how much warming to expect from a doubling of CO2 and how fast it will kick in. Scientists give the question a great deal of attention while trying to improve their models. This piece has some updated thinking that tends to support the common best estimate of about 3C in the fullness of time.
–Extra comment: Because the effect is logarithmic it constantly requires more and more CO2 to add a given amount of extra heating. Thus, moving just half way to the 3C warming gain of a full double takes a gain of only 41% for CO2, with the second half being tied to another 41% starting from that new level. (1.41×1.41=1.99.) We are currently up 45% from pre-industrial level of 280, which takes us more than half way to embedding the heating potential of a full double. Measured temperatures are already up 1.1C and the present thermal imbalance that is in the pipeline and must be overcome (per Hansen’s studies) is equal to about 0.5C, for a very simple way to confirm halfway realization of the final estimate. I still wonder about what will happen eventually if all the reflective aerosols from fossil fuel burning get cleared away, which would surely add more to the thermal imbalance if and when that occurs.
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Why solar energy is rapidly becoming the primary substitute for fossil fuels. A group of experts were asked to explain what has been happening, and what they see coming. At this point the amazing trend of improvements is still far from being completed.
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A major improvement in lithium/ion battery construction is nearly ready for commercial acceptance. It can easily be added to current production runs. Developed in Australia, the technology allows batteries to charge faster and last longer, boosts capacity by up to 50% and saves costs to manufacture.
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How Dieter Helm sees the future of the oil industry. The well-known professor of economics at Oxford University, who is an advisor to major oil executives, tells them their game will soon be over and prices will keep falling, mainly because of revolutionary gains foreseen for electric cars and other vehicles.
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Why the EPA matters, by a former administrator. She lists a number of examples. The current threat from “shortsighted special-interest critics who’d rather hold us back for personal gain” is actually nothing new, and can once again be beaten down.
Carl