Scientists warn about dangers posed by allowing temperatures to rise by 2C, or even 1.5C. This report emphasizes the expected increase in frequency and intensity of deadly heatwaves. About 350 million people will be living in places that have the greatest exposure, many of which have weak facilities for adaptation. James Hansen, while not one of the authors, is named as the principle editor of the report.
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European countries are ranked with respect to policies to uphold promises made at the Paris conference. Only three get a passing grade, and two of those are depending on questionable loopholes. “The great majority of countries want to rig the law with loopholes so they can continue business as usual.” There is a general unwillingness to face the reality of what is required: “An underlying problem confronting EU policy-makers is the profound, costly and rapid nature of the changes needed to limit global warming to 2C, as agreed at Paris.”
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Would the Paris pact proceed more smoothly from now on if the US pulls out? That is the argument made by many who are looking to step up the pace of action, which the presence of a revised US attitude would seek to impede. “The Achilles heel of the Paris Agreement is that it’s built on consensus,” said Johan Rockstrom, a Swedish leader, which means everything will always be negotiable. A go-slow approach actively promoted by the US would undoubtedly gather a following, perhaps large enough to immobilize the pact.
—Extra comment: I suspect that Trump will choose to stay in, with support from many oil companies, for that very reason. A new group of nations will need to be formed, composed only of those who are strongly motivated to move ahead at maximum speed, and are willing to bind themselves, regardless of whether or not others may choose to join. That would create a powerful nucleus that should soon start to grow as others wake up to the grim reality of what is happening.
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Within the US, signs of a showdown with Trump are beginning to form. There are cities and whole states that could choose to associate in any practical way with the new formation described above, even if it means that sacrifices are required.
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The practice of “managed retreat” from endangered shoreline property is analyzed and evaluated by scientists. About 1.3 million people have been relocated in the last three decades. Projections for sea level rise mean that up to 190 million more people will be involved in the making of such decisions by the year 2100, often with a variety of other unpalatable options to consider.
Carl