Climate Letter #838

Posted on January 26, 2017 by Carl Campbell
Massive wildfires are the worst in Chile’s history.  The stage was set by nearly a decade of mega drought.  Thanks to Robert Fanney for providing extensive coverage of this otherwise underreported extreme event.  The post also explores the relationship of this drought to a broad picture of environmental changes occurring across South America that are largely induced by warming temperatures.

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A new discovery sees changes in the formation of Antarctic bottom water.  The water that sinks to the bottom is now warmer and less salty than it was in the past.  This will have effects on deep circulation that are not very well known, that will eventually combine with potential changes in other basins, including deep water formation in the Atlantic.  “As a result, the frigid flow plays a critical role in regulating circulation, temperature, and availability of oxygen and nutrients throughout the world’s oceans, and serves as both a barometer for climate change and a factor that can contribute to that change.”  (It will in some way affect how and for how long the excess energy due to global warming is stored.)
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Kevin Anderson has a solution for how to quickly reduce carbon emissions.  It involves changes in the extravagant lifestyles of a relatively small number of more-affluent persons, who would still remain quite comfortable.  He has numbers that would back up this claim, if only it were realistic with motivation being entirely voluntary.  Giving up air travel is one of the key components.  I have great admiration for Kevin, and have made references to his work ten times is previous letters, but I see even less likelihood of this solution being effectively accepted than the more common calls for a really stiff carbon tax that would achieve a similar end.  Affluent people, which can be taken to include the middle class, do not want to lower their lifestyles, but most would be quite content to allow better sources of energy to be put in place.  Kevin thinks that cannot happen quickly enough to stop a dangerous warming level from being breached, which is probably right, and he also has grave doubts about achieving success through geoengineering.  (Still, assuming every proposed solution is either inadequate or unrealistic, there is no reason to give up the hope of something good that would come into being as a complete surprise.)
Here is a video of a recent speech by Kevin covering the main features of his viewpoint:
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From Exxon, here is a small surprise, maybe the start of something bigger.  Exxon has also placed an atmospheric scientist on its board, following the departure of Tillerson.
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Here is another option for fully tracking the fast-moving events in Washington that have a bearing on climate change.  Climate Home is very attentive to such things and I like their reporting style.
Carl

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