Climate Letter #820

Posted on December 30, 2016 by Carl Campbell
Global temperature forecast for 2017.  All forecasts look for the coming year to be cooler than 2016, simply because there is no chance of a significant El Nino in the works.  Further, because there are few present signs of a major La Nina happening there is little reason to anticipate unusual cooling.  That leaves something in between that would be close to the main trendline, just where 2017 is placed in the chart in this post.  The actual trendline, if drawn here, would show a gain of 0.9C over 45 years, equal to 0.2C per decade.  Unless something changes, we are thus just 45 years away from reaching the 2C benchmark.  Note how the identity of baselines must be carefully watched.  The second chart in the same post uses the preferred baseline of 1881-1910 average, which is a fair representation of the preindustrial base.  On that chart 2017, yet to be added, should end up at about plus 1.1C, a good number to keep in mind for knowing where we are.

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Now for a look at the trend of increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.  Here is an excellent chart, seldom seen, showing annual increases that are irregular but constantly trending higher.  A major El Nino will usually cause a big spike in natural emissions, from wildfires and the like, which is how one can interpret the huge bump recorded in 2016.  Fossil fuel emissions this past year did not grow nearly enough to cause such a gain and that means 2017 should drop back to near or below the main trendline.  In my mind a failure to do so would be a real cause for alarm, because it would signal something going awry in the natural world that may be out of control.  If it isn’t wildfires there are concerns about things like melting permafrost or just a decline in the activity of some of the carbon sinks that normally absorb about half of human emissions.  Of course we still need to see a regular trend of smaller annual increases, all the way down to zero in just a few decades.
A good sign:  For the last three months, since the late September pivot, the magnitude of ppm increase has been about one full point lower than it was during the same three months a year ago, when El Nino was on the rise.  The next four months ought to be similarly favorable in comparison.  This is the graph to watch (scroll down):  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html
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A new discovery for learning about ancient ocean water temperatures.  Scientists are always looking for any kind of natural evidence that can confirm or improve upon old temperature estimates.  This looks like a good one.
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An in-depth analysis of the many advantages of alternative energy sources.  There is plenty of room for optimism about where this is heading.  For those deeply interested the post contains a link to the full report from Lazard with all the latest details

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