Some observations about the accuracy of temperature measurements and adjustments. This post is all about how complicated it is to get the physical measurements right, especially with respect to earlier periods, and also how to evaluate the “noise” that is constantly happening and causing measurements to deviate year after year from the normal trendline. The goal is to accurately position the normal trendline all the way back to say, 1850, as if every measurement and evaluation had been correctly assessed along the way. Proposed adjustments are coming in and being studied all the time, and model-makers have to decide which ones to accept, if any. Since about 1975 the picture has been getting tighter and clearer. For earlier years there is still some work to be done.
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Extra comment: The chart included here shows the normalized temperature, called linear trend, rising in almost a straight line since 1975, covering close to 0.8C in four decades. There is no indication at the moment that that straight line is going to bend either up or down, suggesting a potential increase of another 0.4C in the next 20 years. The chart also depicts a normalized increase of 0.3 to 0.4C between 1850 and 1975, which now puts us at least 1.1C above a period which is a reasonable facsimile of the pre-industrial baseline. 1.5C is right around the corner.
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El Nino provides one of the most important deviants from the normal temperature trend. This short video makes a comparison of the latest one to that of 1997-8, which is said to have been a bit stronger. Temperatures can now fall back toward the trend, just as they did on that occasion. Big volcanoes, even more than La Nina, provide occasional deviation to the other extreme.
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/08/25/john-nielsen-gammon-on-el-nino-and-global-temps/
https://climatecrocks.com/2016/08/25/john-nielsen-gammon-on-el-nino-and-global-temps/
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Cosmic rays have the effect of enhancing global cloud cover. Scientists have been able to demonstrate this effect through analysis of satellite data. Changes are observed to occur which are insufficient to affect climate in the short term, but larger and more durable changes could happen over longer periods.
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An imaginative new idea for storing renewable energy by utilities. The idea, not yet fully proven, is attractive because so little capital is needed to set up an installation. An interesting long shot.
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Electric vehicles will affect much more than just the oil industry. This is a good story about various winners and losers. The losers will include a number of large nations and their banking systems. It is an opportunity for electric utilities, but not a simple one. New battery developments tell you the revolution is going to unfold sooner and faster than most people expect.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EV-Revolution-Set-To-Cripple-More-Than-Just-The-Oil-Industry.html
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/EV-Revolution-Set-To-Cripple-More-Than-Just-The-Oil-Industry.html
Carl