The IPCC is putting more emphasis on how to adapt to a 1.5C world in its next report, maybe a bit less on prevention, which could soon be out of reach. The past year, dominated by El Nino, has taught us much about the dangerous reality of the 1.5C level of heating, and also how close it is to becoming the new normal. Presented as a guide to government policy, will this information help awaken public opinion enough to increase its demand for measures that will prevent something still worse in the future, as visions of 2C loom into view?
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Dire shortage of water in Zimbabwe. Serious food shortages are a result, now affecting 4.5 million people. Low rainfall has been a problem for the entire southern third of the African continent for many months, causing destitution in the most vulnerable locations.
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The current status and outlook for methane release from melting permafrost. It is being closely studied, and researchers call it a “lit fuse,” not overly high at this point but growing in a manner that shows acceleration. Read about how bubbles are released around the edges of lakes, and how those lakes are expanding. “The increasingly warmer Arctic may eventually reach a permafrost-carbon tipping point, Walter Anthony suggested.” (See a related story in yesterday’s letter.)
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New estimates of future world population trends. The total is expected to rise 33% by 2050, from 7.4 to 9.9 billion. About half of the increase will occur in Africa, most of the rest in Asia. India will top the list at 1.7 billion, up from 1.33. Forty-two countries are likely to experience declines
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New calculations about the about the cause of the abrupt collapse of the Mayan civilization. The creation of huge artificial reservoirs made it possible for the population to grow far beyond the natural carrying capacity of the land. All it took was an unprecedented severe and long-lasting drought to wipe out that resource and its false sense of security. Nothing is said here about what caused this particular drought, or whether it could be repeated, but there is a mention about lessons to be learned.
Carl