Climate Letter #618

Posted on March 21, 2016 by Carl Campbell
More commentary on February’s record heat.  Numbers of this sort, both absolute and for sudden growth, have never been seen before.  There have been many spikes in the past, which proved to be temporary, but none of such high magnitude.  After March, which will also be very hot, how far down will temperatures drop as El Nino fades?  The next six to twelves months will complete the story.  If those numbers do not bring a great deal of relief you can expect to hear claims that the much-feared emergency known as “abrupt climate change” is actually here, in full force.

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Future heatwaves in some regions may be much worse than expected.  New research shows that some types of plant life lose their ability to cool the air by evaporation more than do others when CO2 levels rise.  Regions where such plant types dominate could experience temperatures during heatwaves 3-5 degrees higher by mid-century than currently estimated.  The entire region from Europe to China is said to be vulnerable, while many other regions have yet to be closely studied in this way.
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A new study gives the windpower industry high grades for reliability.  Every sort of measurement shows up favorably when compared with fossil fuel power sources.  Because wind itself is so variable in any one place the confidence gained from actual experience of well-managed systems, along with low costs, should assure a high rate of future growth.
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The size and impact of global fossil fuel subsidies.  Important research has been performed at a Canadian university, calculating both direct and indirect costs from a comprehensive database.  Their total value was $1.82 trillion in 2010, 80% of which was accounted for by China, the US and the former USSR nations.  If no subsidies had been present through that year the authors believe that fossil fuel emissions would have been 46% lower than they actually were.  “The overall takeaway from the report is clearly that if governments are serious about cutting their countries’ carbon emissions, then the slashing of fossil fuel subsidies would be prudent.”
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One small country, Bhutan, is carbon negative.  The basic reason is due to the CO2 absorption of its forests, but the country plans to eliminate all emissions by 2030, along with other environmental niceties.  There is a religious content involved in the public attitude, not too surprising.
Carl

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