Climate Letter #561

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The above story from the Atlantic includes a plug for the work of Robert Fanney (aka “robertscribbler”,) who is often quoted in this letter.  Here is how he describes the event, in greater detail, with a number of good references at the end.  As he says, something in the atmosphere has gone “dreadfully wrong.”

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Why we need the next-to-impossible 1.5C temperature target.  The writer, a professor of climatology, puts emphasis on the troubles already being observed as losses of low-lying islands and coral reefs, with the global average just now crossing the 1.0C mark.  He could have said more about the already rising trend of insufferable weather events and effects on wildlife habitat in many places.  We have also learned that glacial destabilization from just one area in Antarctica will provide an “unstoppable” future sea level rise of eleven feet.  All of these things have come about within just the last 0.5C temperature increase since about 1975.  The next 0.5C could cause a more magnified increase in the level of damages done, with 2.0C still to follow.

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What are “tipping points” really like?  Here is a good description, along with some thoughts about possibilities that could emerge in the near future.  According to this recent study, “One of the most important findings is that 18 out of 37 abrupt changes are likely to occur when global temperature rises are 2℃ or less….”

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