A major study describing the global effects of climate change on agriculture, and the problems of adjustment. The conclusion: “Even with adjustments in both farming practices and trade, farming production would decline by roughly one-sixth, using the baseline scenario for climate change projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and incorporating weather projections over a 30-year period.” This unusually detailed study from MIT has had good reviews from others who are peers in the field. It could stand up as an important reference for anyone seeking to best define the serious impacts of a warming climate.
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Is it time to bury the global warming “pause” idea? Climate deniers have effectively used their own distorted description of a 17-year pause as a means of belittling climate science. Deniers in the US Congress are now trying to attack scientists who say the pause never really existed except as a temporary slowdown that can be explained in full. This year’s temperature jump just about closes the book on the whole issue. All nicely covered in this Chris Mooney story from the Washington Post.
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A field report from the Arctic boreal forest region. The changes are almost surreal, with so many complications that coming to any solid conclusions about how climate will be affected cannot be readily calculated, leading to a lack of presence in most models. There remains a real fear of the emergence of tipping points that end up with runaway carbon emissions due to self-generating feedback effects.
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On the importance of forest management. Deforestation and forest degradation are responsible for more than 15% of all greenhouse gas emissions. That makes them an important part of the whole program to bring emissions down, and much can be done through directed effort toward that end. “It is the lowest cost, most practical and immediately available strategy that can make a real, long-lasting difference to the climate problem.”
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A new report on the magnitude of viable renewable energy resources. This comes from the same folks who reported a year ago that all 50 US states could make a complete and timely transition away from fossil fuels. Now they are following up with a report covering the entire world, showing that 139 countries fall in the “100 percent” category. Their approach is comprehensive to an extraordinary degree and widely praised.
Carl