A new report on the severity of the current El Nino, from the Washington Post. At least one record has already been broken, and numerous surprises are anticipated. “So this naturally occurring El Niño event and human induced climate change may interact and modify each other in ways which we have never before experienced.”
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Example: A severe drought is now taking place in South Africa, which may have a connection to El Nino. “The severity of the water shortages that we are experiencing is a result of a very strong El Niño. The relative intensity of this El Niño is certainly related to climate change,” said Professor Mary Scholes, a climate change specialist at the University of the Witwatersrand.
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How more rain can mean less usable water. This is a good overview of the problems caused by having reduced quantities of snow positioned for timely melting, one of the major consequences of climate change felt globally.. There are ways to adapt, but only at considerable expense.
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The relationship between rising temperatures and future economic growth. This is an important subject but difficult to find the right evidence to work with, so it will always be controversial. We should see more attempts at making projections of quality. This is a good introduction.
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A frightening report that claims the estimates of CO2 levels in the distant past need to be lowered. This is based on an all-new method of demonstrating how to arrive at such estimates, which are notoriously difficult to secure. If correct, this means the CO2 trajectory that is now in place will result in significantly higher temperatures than those commonly predicted. The authors make this claim: “These are direct chemical measurements that are based on equilibrium thermodynamics……These are direct laboratory experiments, so I think they’re really reliable.” The study comes from a research group in a small New York university and has not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, so acceptance will be guarded and the work will need considerable vetting.
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Global coal consumption will be down in 2015, for the second consecutive year. Except for India, this is happening in practically all of the major consuming countries. This is the very best way to reduce carbon emissions, if it can be sustained.
India’s coal consumption can be reined in by low-cost solar energy within a decade, according to this prediction:
Carl