Climate Letter #514

Posted on October 22, 2015 by Carl Campbell
A close-up view of record temperature development in 2015.  Thanks to the NY Times for this excellent graph of how average temperatures of the five previous record years proceeded month by month, plus 2015 to date.  Looking to the future, there are a great many down years on the long-term graph, especially following El Nino events.  That will happen again, but the basic trend since about 1970 is still very much intact and likely to remain so.

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Fires in the Amazon basin rival those occurring in Indonesia.  Up some 47% from the severe burning of 2014, this has not been well-publicized.  Meanwhile the Indonesian fires keep intensifying, resisting any hope of control in the absence of intense rainfall, which is inhibited by the ongoing El Nino conditions.
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What a leading expert on permafrost has to say about what is happening.  This individual is clearly someone who does not jump ahead to make headlines with dramatic forecasts. What he sees is bad enough, and quite credible.
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What to expect from the pledges now submitted to Paris.  The IEA says that if fully met they will be enough to hold the global temperature rise to 2.7C by 2100, down from 3.6C as calculated from the current track.  That is progress, but not enough.  Moreover, emissions would still be rising slowly in the year 2030 when they should be well into a declining phase.  Paris can succeed simply by accomplishing an effective pathway to collective action for the very first time, one that can be improved upon.
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A special way to increase the efficiency of solar panels is found.  A pair of university teams worked this out with the help of advanced mathematics.  “With standard panels, not tilted at the optimum angle for the latitude, the increase in efficiency reached 45 percent. Even with a panel optimally tilted, the efficiency increased by 18 percent and simulations show it could be pushed to 30 percent with better reflectors.”  The technique can be applied retroactively, and the knowledge will be made widely available.
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Major improvements in the components of a type of flow battery.  From Germany, a development that could have a real impact in this hotly competitive business.
Carl

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