Climate Letter #455

Are we now half way to the global “guardrail limit” of a 2C temperature rise?  This report from New Scientist magazine explains several reasons for thinking so, which puts us a big step ahead of those charts placing the current increase at 0.85C since 1880.  A new chart created by Kevin Cowtan, who has made well-accepted adjustments from his own research, is updated for other recent work, which shows the globe now pushing through 1C.  In his words, ” if climate talks do not lead to drastic action, we could pass the 2 °C mark around the middle of the century.”  https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22730324-200-earth-now-halfway-to-un-global-warming-limit/?

Temperature increases for the Northern Hemisphere, land areas only, are rising much faster than the global average.  This is the region where most of the world’s population actually lives.  Increases measured since 1880 appear at a level of about 1.8C, of which 1.3C is accounted for just since a steady rise began around 1970.  This is based on an independent study made of data provided by NASA, NOAA and Berkeley.  The Northern Hemisphere is heating up more rapidly than the Southern for several reasons, including the fact that relatively much more ocean surface exists in the south.  Ocean surfaces are cooled by their high rate of evaporation, allowing the transport of heat to higher level dispersion by atmospheric winds.   https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/07/30/where-most-of-us-live-with-apologies-to-southern-hemisphere-readers/

A study from the US Northeast showing that the arrival of spring is happening earlier than before.  This is one of the better confirmations of the reality of global warming apart from having sole reliance on temperature readings.  The covered area is relatively small, but the database is outstanding, and one should have no doubt that the similar results could be extended to areas far beyond.   http://insideclimatenews.org/news/29072015/time-global-warming-data-shows-spring-sprung-later?

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Truly pioneering research leads to the belief that solar collectors can become much more efficient.  In this case, based on a study of butterfly wings, the amount of power produced by solar panels could possibly be designed to increase by almost 50%.  Keep in mind that any gain in efficient production means a decrease in the number of panels that need to be installed, which involves a majority of the total cost and even the viability of a complete installation.   http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150731070212.htm

How energy use in the UK has been dropping.  That includes all energy, not just that based on fossil fuel, totaling 18% since 2005.  Meanwhile the economy has been growing and the overall standard of living to my knowledge is still well blessed.  Maybe there is a message here for everyone.    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/five-charts-show-the-historic-shifts-in-uk-energy-last-year/?

Carl

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