Climate Letter #265 October 29, 2014
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Climate science—there is always something more to learn. This time, it makes life more complicated for those who are trying to demonstrate the progress of how climate is being changed. To wit, “North Atlantic Ocean cooling means the so called pause in global warming will continue for at least a decade, says the leading climate scientist who first predicted this effect back in 2008.” He is using the phrase “global warming” here in the usual way, with reference only to the atmosphere. Warming of the oceans has never stopped, and will continue, it’s just that we happen to be in the middle of a lengthy cycle during which heat in the Atlantic Ocean is being transferred from the surface to considerable depths at a stepped-up pace. That causes the surface to become cooler than it otherwise would be. The cycle will eventually reverse, but maybe not for a decade of so if the normal pattern, as now being observed, prevails. It appears that this effect, largely involving movements of the Gulf Stream, may actually overshadow the cyclical strength of well-recognized wind-driven (ENSO) oscillations in the Pacific.
At the end of this post there are four links to earlier reviews that have related information, three of which are derived from totally separate sources. One of these, originating in China (Chen and Tung), is particularly interesting because it offers detailed evidence of what is going on, as found here:
Extra comment: This cooling effect, which has growing support in science and may well be for real, could turn out to be more like just a pronounced slowdown in the rate of warming gains rather than a true pause, because so many other emerging factors are also now at work on the surface. These could perhaps be more than enough to offset the natural cooling cycle.
Interesting new poll results. This reflects a strikingly different attitude toward climate issues between younger and older generations. Maybe this is because young people have more at stake?
This site more fully describes the interesting new book I mentioned on Monday:
Carl