Climate Letter #448

A study of persons displaced by natural and weather-related disasters.  The worldwide total was 19.3 million in 2014, mostly in China, India and the Philippines.  The number was not as high as in some recent years but the historical trend is clearly upward.  “Our historical analysis reveals you are 60 percent more likely to be displaced by disasters today than you were in the 1970s.”  Since earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are all of a random and unpredictable nature that difference should mostly be attributed just to weather-related disasters, where global warming is involved as an important factor.   http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/21/world/asia/disasters-both-natural-and-weather-related-displaced-19-million-in-2014.html?ref=energy-environment&_r=0

More details on the new paper issued by James Hansen, which was discussed here yesterday, provided by Chris Mooney in the Washington Post.  The Hansen paper is full of projections of an alarmist type, and has already ignited controversy among scientists, many of whom are quoted in this review.  None of us mortals can really determine who is right, but I would never bet against Hansen, especially when Eric Rignot is one of the co-authors.  The concept of repetitive “doubling time” for melting rates is an issue, also the effects of fresh melt water, and the accuracy of comparisons made with the evidence of what occurred during the Eemian interglacial period.  All very interesting.   http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/07/20/the-worlds-most-famous-climate-scientist-just-outlined-an-alarming-scenario-for-our-planets-future/

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Should rich nations give financial help to poor ones to compensate for problems of climate change?  There is a mechanism in place to do just that, but the funding is not coming through, and the program is stagnating.  There is a way to change the funding method that ought to be considered.  That is by placing a small sales tax, of perhaps just 1-2%, on the first sale of any fossil fuel by its producer, to anyone, collected in the same currency as that of the sale, which is then transferred directly to the Green Climate Fund by the sellers.  Everyone who is currently an end user of these products, rich and poor alike, would bear some proportion of the burden, but the proceeds would only go to where there is a need.  The “pain” to those paying would in all cases be nearly invisible.  Other carbon fees of probably higher amounts could still be added on by individual countries for other purposes.    http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20072015/paris-climate-change-treaty-finances-shaky-ground-green-climate-fund

What does the future of oil prices look like, and how will renewable energy be affected?  I think you will find this essay by Amory Lovins has many interesting things to say.  How the Saudis compare with other producers, and what they seem to have in mind, is especially noteworthy.   http://climatecrocks.com/2015/07/21/oil-prices-the-roller-coaster-to-nowhere/#more-24480

Here is another reminder of the huge mess that oil companies are creating on the surface of the Earth.   http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-New-Oil-Spill-Disaster-Waiting-To-Happen-In-The-Gulf.html

Yet another example of grotesques environmental damage, this time committed by coal miners.  We have also seen stories lately about mountaintop coal mining, which is finally being curtailed.   http://midwestenergynews.com/2015/07/21/for-illinois-farmers-damage-from-coal-mines-can-span-decades/

Carl

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