Climate Letter #404

A most interesting new discovery of oceanic heat transfer. Much of the heated surface water produced in the western Pacific Ocean actually ends up deep in the Indian Ocean, which is a total surprise. This is a fairly recent development, with multiple consequences yet to be completely unravelled. I can see how it would reduce the potency of an El Nino event, maybe even its frequency. “The Indonesian shuffle means that the Indian Ocean is now home to 70 percent of all heat taken up by global oceans during the past decade.”  That is indeed a big number, a lttle hard to believe at first blush.

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A new study of the true social cost of burning fossil fuel, much of which is reflected in actual payouts. This comes from the IMF, which says the total is equal to US$5.3 trillion per year! That number is said to have “robust” backing, and is broken down by both categories and location, with China being far out in front because of its horrific air pollution. The IMF makes a good case for ending the subsidization of dirty fuel by raising its price. This report will get a great deal of publicity, and present quite a challenge to the denial crowd.
New progress report for black-silicon solar technology. Energy conversion efficiency was recently certified at an impressive 22.1%, with further gains expected. See Climate Letter #401 for more information about the potential for black silicon.. Exciting stuff.
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Should nuclear power get more emphasis? Assuming that modern nuclear plants can be made much less risky than those of old, this subject deserves a full hearing. That is because vast amounts of nuclear power can be put in place very quickly, probably more so than similar amounts of other non-fossil alternatives. Those other alternatives will eventually be fully established, but for a quick-fix the nuclear option may be less risky than allowing more of the current rate of CO2 build-up.

 Carl

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