Climate Letter #391

El Nino forecast update. Current data provided by NOAA and others now shows signs of early stages of a moderately strong El Nino developing this year. That would almost certainly make 2015 unequivocally the warmest year ever recorded, following the marginal record set in 2014. As explained in this post, model runs have been created that suggest the further possibility of this becoming a “super” type of El Nino, giving an enhanced boost to temperature trends. While any such boost is normally temporary, as in 1998, it could be timed to have a potent influence on the Paris conference proceedings later this year.

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The importance of soil in climate science. This post contains an unusual amount of clearly presented information, and it tells us that soil’s ability to store carbon, or to lose what it has already stored, is very important indeed, because the numbers are so large. Human activities have been more and more damaging, a matter that is now getting some high level attention.
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New evidence for an Arctic/Antarctic temperature imbalance. From past experience, rapid warming in the North, which has been fairly common in times past, has an effect in the South only after a lag that averages about 200 years. Several possible reasons are offered. While today’s situation is unusual, air temperatures around Antarctica, as well as most of the Southern Hemisphere, are certainly lagging far behind what we observe going on in the North. (You can see this clearly by checking out the maps on the Climate Reanalyzer website at http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/#.)
What “global warming” really means. These ideas may be new to some readers. For others, this fresh review of the subject is worth reading, as a reminder that there is basically no slowdown, or “hiatus” in the warming trend as some would have us believe. Remember too that “climate change” is a consequence of global warming, expressed in various ways in various regions, closely tied to the complex movements of ocean behavior.  (The previous story provides a vivid illustration.)

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Major new test of electrical power storage underway, using flywheels. If successful, this could be a viable alternative to the latest inventions of battery producers. We should find out before long.
Carl

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