Climate Letter #389

Worries about unusual warming found on high altitude mountains. This is just coming to light, because of an absence of systematic tracking in the past. There are many negative implications, among which “…..this store of winter snow and ice becomes a source of spring and summer meltwater on which farmers, cities and even whole nations have grown to depend.”

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Pope Francis is riling climate contrarians. Most such contrarians are also political conservatives, and are currently able to hold much of the conservative movement in their grasp. The conservative movement now has the Republican Party pretty much in its grasp, while the party seeks to take full control of the U.S. government in the next election. This means the Pope, willingly or not, probably not, is becoming deeply involved in U.S. politics. His views on climate/environment are much in tune with those of a majority of young voters, women voters, Latinos and more, all of whom will be in great demand in 2016. The Republican Party would thus prefer not to elevate this issue. The Pope is being careful to elevate it just because it needs to be elevated in view of how doing so may constructively affect the critically important conference in Paris soon coming up. This should lead to all sorts of interesting developments, especially since many Republicans, like George Schultz, are not contrarians, and many contrarians also have personal commitments to the Catholic Church. I would bet that we will be seeing a swing away from the contrarian commitment in coming months as it becomes more and more isolated.
One more comment: Historically, many individuals who think of themselves as contrarians have done so out of fear that loss of access to the energy provided by fossil fuels would do great damage to their personal standard of living and also to economic stability in general. That attitude was justifiable just a few years ago, but not anymore, because of the incredible inroads being made by alternative energy sources. Because it has happened so quickly, an awareness of that progress, and confidence that it is here to stay, is just now beginning to sink in. The contrarian base will thus have good reason to keep shrinking from here on out.

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Renewables are now being driven more by economics than idealism. Major investment banking firms all seem to be coming to that conclusion. This trend, in the absence of being willfully impeded, will continue to play out regardless of what the Pope says, or what happens in Paris.
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A reminder about the poisonous nature of coal ash, enormous stores of which are piling up all over the globe. Lack of dependable regulation can present problems.
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An interesting clean-fuel invention, backed by Audi. Plans are already being made to start industrial-scale production, so the economics must be favorable.
Carl

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