Climate Letter #387

New research concerning the future effects of water vapor and cloud cover. This work comes from Kevin Trenberth, a recognized elite climate scientist. The most important finding is that future warming will change cloud cover in a way that adds a slight amount of extra warming effect as a positive feedback. This whole subject has previously been classed as one of the major unknowns, with some claims often made, without proof, that there would be more of a net cooling effect. The new work offers reasonable proof, but will still go through the usual vetting process before many climate models get changed..

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How quickly will the transition proceed from fossil fuels to renewables? Everyone agrees that the transition is underway, but still has a very long way to go, with many obstacles in place. Scientific American weighs in with a forum report predicting that the changeover will happen more quickly than most people think, but not quickly enough to prevent global temperatures from exceeding the 2C limit. The serious consequences that follow will then prompt a more intensive hastening to completion of the transition effort. (That of course is something we have the ability to do now, but won’t because the necessary sense of urgency has yet to be uncorked.)
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The Chilean volcano. It is definitely a big one, and you should check it out on the video in this post. But is it big enough to affect the global climate? Probably not by much, but there is a good discussion here of all of the factors that pertain to what impact any one volcano can cause.
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The mysteries of human behavior, neatly symbolized. This post shows us what is actually happening in today’s Miami. There has been no lack of local warnings about the dangers of sea level rise, but people with lots of money to spend seem oblivious. Some probably think it just can’t be that way, perhaps because of divine providence or else by nature’s correction of errors made by the poor calculations of incompetent scientists, etc. Others probably just rely on governments at all levels to do whatever is necessary to take care of things. One can suppose that these same attitudes or others like them are prevalent everywhere, with respect to all of the various dangers of global warming, which is why there is so much complacency.
Carl

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