Climate Letter #363

More information about a really huge story, the new Totten Glacier study. As reported last week, a meltdown of this glacier would add about eleven feet to global sea level. What is the likelihood of this happening? “Given that previous work has shown that the basin has drained its ice to the ocean and filled again many times in the past, this study uncovers a means for how that process may be starting again.” It has also been known for some time that the glacier was rapidly thinning as well as fast moving, but this could not be explained until now.

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As noted by Robert Fanney, if Totten is fully destabilized the implication is that 26 feet of sea level rise over several centuries has been locked in overall. Also, many of East Antarctica’s other glaciers have yet to be studied and could prove to be vulnerable as well.
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Incredible news out of China. This is just a forecast, but there must be something real going on that would prompt it. Let’s cut the forecast in half, to a 5% decline, a figure that would be amazing enough, signifying, among other things, a decline in China’s GDP growth rate from around 7% to perhaps just 2-3% this year. And since this is a domestic producer, in a favored position, one must wonder what kind of hit the import sources will take. A complete shock for Australia is certain, and unwelcome news for U.S. producers, both of whom will now be more determined than ever to hang on to their domestic markets—with government help solicited, of course..
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/more-signs-of-peak-coal-as-chinas-shenhua-forecasts-10-sales-decline-35119
There have been plenty of signs that China is planning to get serious, really serious, about curbing poisonous emissions. Read what the chief of China’s Meteorological Administration has to say:
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Heavy oil prices have become a problem for Canada. The average discount from “sweet” Texas crude is about $13 a barrel because of extra refining costs. That leaves just $33 and even less at times in today’s markets, versus typical production costs of $40 and up.  The same problem should have an even greater effect on Venezuela.

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Iran is hurting for water. Mismanagement is a big part of the problem, but a change of climate to warmer and drier conditions has worsened the situation.
Carl

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