Climate Letter #341

Major coral reef bleaching event predicted for this year. While reading this story cIosely one gets the impression that these forecasters have a lot of experience and know exactly what they are talking about. I also get the impression that if 2015 turns out to be an El Nino event year, which at this time is considered possible but uncertain, the bleaching will end up much worse than what is now being pictured. If that were to become the case many would characterize the event as a natural catastrophe, with any prospect of full recovery being most unlikely.

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China’s coal demand explained, from the N.Y. Times. This says we should probably not get too optimistic about a possible near-term reduction in China’s coal consumption, mainly because of all the new power plants coming on stream. It seems that heavy industry, not the utilities, gets most of the blame for last year’s slowdown. Also, China is unlikely to go all out for managing emissions with CCS technology, which is very costly. Sure, a lasting stoppage of their usual pace of economic growth would change everything, but how likely is that?
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Coal generated power expanding rapidly in Indonesia. Indonesia ranks fourth in the world in population, with 255 million, not too far below the U.S. It is a developing nation, gearing up for rapid economic growth, just like everyone else. It is rich in natural resources, expecially coal. Using cheap coal to generate electricity comes naturally, and plans are in place to triple capacity in just ten years. With a history of weak environmental policy this is a situation that will be getting lots of outside attention and advice.
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New technology for treating agricultural waste. This one should make a difference, because it is cost effective and highly attractive for large scale livestock operations, which have become a major but relatively unrecognized problem as a source of greenhouse gas emissions along with other nasty things.
Carl

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