Climate Letter #1154

A new analysis of how the 2016 heatwave affected the Great Barrier Reef.  The coral death rate was 30% in this nine-month event, “far more harmful than historical bleaching events, where an estimated 5% to 10% of corals died.”  Some species of corals demonstrated superior resistance to heat stress and were able to bounce back.  2016 was a major El Nino year, which is relatively uncommon, but there will be more like it in the future, making clear the need to halt the underlying trend of oceanic warming.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/19/great-barrier-reef-30-of-coral-died-in-catastrophic-2016-heatwave

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A new study reveals a mechanism that accelerates Antarctic melting, and more.  Fresh meltwater, which is cold but lacks salt, tends to stay on the surface instead of mixing with warmer waters below.  The warmer waters can then cause more melting below the ice shelves.  There is also a reduction of cold, dense water sinking to the ocean floor, which is an important part of the normal circulation pattern.  “Our results suggest that a further increase in the supply of glacial meltwater to the waters around the Antarctic shelf may trigger a transition from a cold regime to a warm regime, characterised by high rates of melting from the base of ice shelves and reduced formation of cold bottom waters that support ocean uptake of atmospheric heat and carbon dioxide.”
https://phys.org/news/2018-04-reveals-antarctic-contributing-sea-climate.html
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In the Arctic there is a greater influence of activities that cause an acceleration of melting on the surface at the edges of the ice sheet.  In this case there is a combination of factors that interact, not all of them originating as feedbacks.  This work highlights the importance of restricting the introduction of soot from outside sources.  (The story, like others we have seen lately, mentions predictions that sea level could rise as much as ten feet in this century under a worst-case scenario involving both of the major ice sheets.)
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19042018/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-climate-change-arctic-pollution-sea-level-rise-algae-black-carbon
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Capital flows into a low-carbon economy will require trillions of dollars in new government spending for disaster relief and to assist the rebuilding that is needed.  A new UN-sponsored financial study shows that too few plans are in place to accommodate the new economy and and far too much is still being spent on fossil fuel subsidies and other means of support designed for maintaining the old economy.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/low-carbon-investment-is-moving-too-slowly-to-rein-in-warming-u-n-warns/
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Do high-tech civilizations fail because they carry within themselves the seeds of their own destruction?  This was an idea that gained much attention when the nuclear arms race was developing.  More recently it has been broadened to include the overactive burning of fossil fuels along with things like polymer pollution and massive degradation of the environment.  A new contribution to this idea focuses on the probable geological imprint of a civilization that has vanished for such reasons.

https://climatenewsnetwork.net/long-lived-civilisation-may-be-a-dream/

Carl

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