Climate Letter #1142

A new study about the growth of food insecurity in a 2C world, reviewed by John Abraham.  This is part of a suite of some twenty studies issued yesterday, and mentioned in yesterday’s Climate Letter, aimed at providing a full picture of what global warming will do to us if the 2C increase is realized.  This particular study is purposely limited to agricultural problems expected from increases in rainfall, drought and related weather extremes.  The total vulnerability for each individual country is indexed and shown by color code on a chart.
–The full study can be examined at this link:  http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/376/2119/20160452
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Another study forecasts the likelihood of ice-free conditions developing in the Arctic Ocean under various warming scenarios.  At 2C the probability of an ice-free stage in the summer becomes 100% each year by 2100, reduced to 30% if warming is held to 1.5C.  Arctic ice loss has far-reaching effects in other parts of the globe.
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New findings about the way carbon is released when permafrost thaws.  The research shows that current estimates of methane emissions are much too low, based on observations related to the activity of water-saturated soils.  Because methane is so much more powerful than CO2 as a greenhouse gas, a higher proportion of this gas contained by emissions is enough to add considerably to the warming effect.
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Iran’s Lake Urmia is in a serious state of decline (Natural Geographic).  This once large and popular saltwater lake has been reduced in size by 80% over the last 30 years.  As usual, climate change is one of a number of factors causing the decline, and the one most difficult to control.
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On the coast of Senegal (Northwest Africa) many homes are being washed away by rising sea level.  Coastal erosion is forcing the resettlement of ten thousand residents (Thomson Reuters).
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The Fiji islands, with a population of 900,000, are also affected by sea level rise but its people are even more worried about the increasing frequency of cyclones.  There is an “almost constant” threat, with intensities becoming severe even in the absence of a direct hit.
Carl
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