Climate Letter #1132

Californians are being warned about the approach of an “atmospheric river” rainfall system.  This unusual type of event that is setting up could become one of the strongest on record because so much water vapor is involved in the current atmosphere.  Some areas scarred by last year’s wildfires are on the target line.

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Thawing permafrost in a water-soaked condition produces considerably more methane than expected.  This was determined by a team of researchers through a study conducted over a total of seven years.  “By combining process-based and molecular-microbiological methods, our study shows for the first time that the methane-forming microorganisms in the thawing permafrost have significant influence on the greenhouse gas budget,” which means the data is solid and should change predictions about the future impact on climate change from this source.

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New information about the Totten glacier is unfavorable for sea level rise projection.  More of the glacier is exposed to melting from the underside than has been thought, which is causing a speedup in the movement of the glacier toward the sea.  Its loss could add ten feet to sea level over time.  Most other East Antarctic glaciers rest on a rocky base and move more slowly, while accumulating offsetting amounts of additional mass from snowfall on their topside.
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A new study calculates the effect of global warming on the melting rate of the world’s mountain glaciers.  Melting will continue long after temperatures stop rising, which means a 36% loss of today’s ice is already baked in.  That will take well over a century, but further warming of any amount will add to the total, mainly in following centuries.
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Deforestation of the Amazon basin is approaching a critical tipping point.  “….the question has been raised of how much deforestation would be required to degrade the region’s hydrological cycle to the point at which it would be unable to support rainforest ecosystems.”  New considerations have reduced the placement of that point, leaving an irreversible limit very close to what has already occurred.  There is still thought to be a margin of safety if further deforestation is quickly brought to a full stop.
https://phys.org/news/2018-03-amazon-deforestation.html
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Phoenix, Arizona is said to be the world’s least sustainable city.  The way things are now being done will simply have to change in a fairly drastic manner.  It has happened before.  “The Hohokam people were the original irrigators of the valley that later became home to Phoenix. Their society, numbering an estimated 40,000, collapsed in the 15th century – for reasons believed to relate to disagreements over scarce water.”
Carl

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