Climate Letter #1117

Cities around the globe are being harder hit by climate change than scientists predicted.  Nearly half of the 92 cities in the C40 network saw extreme flooding last year, leading to suggestions that an “optimism bias” was built into scientific forecasts.  Ten large cities are on danger watch because they could run out of water.  Policymakers are now seeing a need to plan for the worst, which is inevitably expensive.

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The latest study of North American wildfires sees a disturbing trend that is likely to continue.  “States in the interior Western U.S., in particular, may be faced with large increases in total wildfire area burned, potentially beyond anything that has been experienced in the past.”  Scientists have set up a detailed statistical model of the likelihood of occurrence and applied it 1500 grid cells, with results displayed in this post.
https://phys.org/news/2018-02-wildfire-problem-decades.html
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An international conference is looking for ways to alleviate the crises surrounding Lake Chad.  The lake has declined by two-thirds over the last fifty years, leaving over ten million people in need of aid, as rivers that flow into the lake have been sapped by a drier climate.  Boko Haram terrorists are active in the area.
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More studies are now looking at climate change impacts beyond 2100.  That’s simply because many things we are doing today will have effects that continue on for several more centuries even if we stop doing them.  Sea level rise gets the most attention in this story while others like thawing permafrost are also considered.  This viewpoint ends up with a stronger call for negative emissions since the CO2 level we have now is already too high.  (See yesterday’s letter about the Pliocene comparison for more on that subject.)
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Soils that exist in areas that are forested actively store massive amounts of carbon.  As researchers point out, this fact makes it all the more important that reforesting programs, which are now much too weak, should be accelerated.  Replacing forests with marginal cropland is seen as a much less effective alternative.
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From Inside Climate News, an in-depth analysis of the evolution of the climate denial movement.  No better reporting can be found on this movement, which unfortunately has been largely successful in furthering its misinformation goals.
Carl

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