Climate Letter #1111

The fragmentation of tropical forests is reaching a critical tipping point.  Fragmentation is now being measured with extremely high resolution, and the results are disturbing on all three continents that have these forests.  When certain laws of physics are applied the outlook indicates a rapid acceleration of further fragmentation that would be nearly impossible to mitigate, with unwanted consequences for both biodiversity and carbon storage.  Reference is made to a different study which has shown “that fragmentation of once connected tropical forest areas could increase carbon emissions worldwide by another third.”  (That would have a direct impact on the already shrunken carbon budget allotted to humans.)

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The current status and future prospects of offshore floating windfarms (Carbon Brief).  They offer impressive advantages but there are some technical challenges and costs, while falling, are not yet competitive.
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An update on the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice extent.  One chart shows how the maximum extent has declined in just a few decades compared with its previous 1500-year history, which was irregular but essentially flat.  Another chart shows the trend of averages for just the month of January since 1979, setting a new low record in 2018.  The trend is unmistakable, and there is no end in sight.
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Why is the Arctic warming so much?  The heat doesn’t appear by some kind of magic, and there is no sunlight in mid-winter, but something is bringing it in.  The Weather Maps make it clear that warm ocean waters are the source, transporting heat that originated in low latitudes toward the poles by movements at the surface.  Winds finish the job by collecting heat from the northern reaches of both the Atlantic and Pacific and blowing it over the Arctic.  The Atlantic is especially important because so much of its open water is so close to the pole itself.  Note that average air temperatures at the pole today are comparable to those as far south as Nebraska, which is simply ridiculous.
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A company based in Richmond, Washington, has big ideas about the things that hydrogen can accomplish.  It has some products in tow that are worth paying attention to.  “The first will use hydrogen to clean up existing diesel engines, increasing their fuel efficiency by a third and eliminating over half their air pollution, with an average nine-month payback, the company says.”  The potential world market for such a product, assuming it to be real, is “unfathomably large.”  There is much more information in this coverage from Vox.
Carl

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