Climate Letter #1107

Ethiopia is facing its fourth consecutive year of drought.  In a part of the country next to Somalia a large population of nomadic herders are now being relocated and must learn how to pursue a new lifestyle.  Fortunately, they are getting assistance.  Africa has millions of people in this type of situation, facing an uncertain future.  For these people climate change is already catastrophic.

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A number of studies report some indicators showing that the rate of global warming has accelerated.  These have become apparent even when the effect of El Nino is neutralized.  Tim Radford has short reviews and comparisons of several of the studies, with links to sources.
–There is also a new study showing how sea level rise has in fact been accelerating, reviewed here by Inside Climate News.  Forecasts of any future rate of acceleration are still open to much debate and uncertainty, leaving a total of two feet of rise as a bare minimum for this century.
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Gavin Schmidt (NASA head) says we should expect more complete surprises from climate change.  In this interview conducted in Australia he lists examples from the past and some things he is wary of in the future, with special emphasis on Antarctica.  In his view more “unknown unknowns” are inevitable.
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Another reason not to overlook fuel cells as a potentially viable source of alternative energy.  Researchers at Northwestern University have created a cell having exceptional density and stability at an optimal temperature.  “With this research, we can now envision a path to making cost-effective fuel cells and transforming the energy landscape.”  With design now proven, the remaining challenge will be to develop scalable manufacturing routes that are most cost-effective.
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A draft of the UN report on holding to the 1.5C target is now available.  This post has a summary of the main points, which include the fact that negative emissions are an essential component.  Eating less meat is also mentioned, and what to do about the expected “overshoot” problem.  There is a link to the full report, but the whole thing looks to me like nothing more than a waste of time, with even 2C looking pretty shaky.
Carl

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