Climate Letter #1095

A short video report from Keith Schneider about the future of offshore drilling for oil.  This one is an absolute joy to watch, and no one could say it better than Keith.

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A report from Stefan Rahmstorf, loaded with useful information.  Stefan is one of a small number of first-rate climate scientists who stay in regular communication with the public, and is even willing to spend time and energy taking apart the devious claims that emanate from the denial community.  This report includes materials that will let you brush up on many basic facts and fundamentals of the climate system.  I want to comment on one chart, about CO2 flux, about half-way down.  Notice how the ocean sink keeps growing at a steady pace while the land sink is far more erratic, and how that erratic behavior directly affects the yearly outcome for what remains in the atmosphere.  Moreover, there are reasons for concern about whether this sink is still in an overall trend of growth, which is being affected by things like excessive deforestation and permafrost thawing.  The last few years (through 2016) suggest a need to stay alert to this important indicator.  Without healthy sinks staying in place our carbon budget will be eaten away by nature itself.
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The future course of deforestation in Southeast Asia will be influenced by policies that respond to new demands for biofuels derived largely from palm oil (Mongabay).   Accommodating this demand would require a doubling of current production from palm oil plantations, mainly created by the clearing of forests.  The aviation industry, with the backing of an agency of the UN, is responsible for the largest share of the increase, a prospect that should come under loud and strong resistance.
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A new study finds that tiny particles of air pollution can have a huge effect on storm intensity.  The details about how this works are quite interesting.  The particles result from industrial activity, kind of like CO2, and have their own specific but narrow effect on climate that will have to be accounted for in certain attribution studies.
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Yet another study shows how California will be affected by climate stress.  This one deals with risks to natural vegetation in the state due exclusively to higher temperatures.  Holding those increases to a lower level would truly be of major benefit.
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One last item, from Yale e360, mainly directed to persons who have a special interest in Chesapeake Bay, with a focus on Maryland’s Dorchester County—beautifully done.
Carl

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