Climate Letter #1073

How climate science have changed in the past few years (Inside Climate News).  This report cites a number of sources that provide extra details.  The main point is that things are changing more quickly and in more extreme ways than scientists had previously expected.  The conclusions and recommendations of the 2014 IPCC assessment, on which the Paris Agreement was based, are in many ways already out of date, leaving less time for meaningful remedies to succeed.  Michael Mann’s comment about sea level studies is a highly provocative example.

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New plans for advanced exploration beneath the Antarctic ice shelves.  This project, privately bankrolled by Seattle billionaire Paul Allen, may provide an abundance of new data on which more accurate projections for sea level rise can be based.  (Currently the range of mainstream estimates runs from around two feet all the way up to eight feet by the end of the current century.)
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There is a new published report in a science journal about the possible influence of cosmic rays on Earth’s climate history.  I read about it last week but did not immediately say anything in these letters because of the off-beat nature of the conclusions.  The better-qualified folks at Skeptical Science have quickly put together a rebuttal that should be read in conjunction with media reviews or the report itself, as made available through links that are included.  The whole idea is interesting because it comes up periodically and is then broadly publicized by those who want to deny the conventional acceptance of greenhouse gas effects.
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“Timeline for Electric Vehicle Revolution.”  For those who are thinking about buying one, or otherwise just curious, this article by a seasoned observer is quite meaty.  “The bottom line is this: EVs will be better and cheaper than ICEVs at the value end of the biggest volume segments (small SUV and compact car) by 2022. At the higher-priced end of these segments, EVs will already be at parity by 2019. By 2024–2025, EVs will outcompete on both features and price in pretty much every vehicle segment (except rocket ships).”
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The big oil companies may lose their gasoline market but they still have plastics.  “Around 99% of the feedstock for plastics is fossil fuels, so we are looking at the same companies, like Exxon and Shell, that have helped create the climate crisis. There is a deep and pervasive relationship between oil and gas companies and plastics.”  They are continuing to invest heavily in new production facilities in preparation for a 40% increase in global demand.
Carl

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