Which climate models are the best at predicting future warming? A new study has taken a close look at the methods of about three dozen of the most prominent models and matched those methods up with what has recently been happening. The differences were considerable, and the authors found that the ones that are the most accurate produce future warming numbers that are about 15% greater, on average, than widely accepted projections, which tend to reflect the average for all of these models. That difference really needs to be embedded in the numbers that make up the carbon budgets tied to staying within certain limits. They will have to shrink.
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–Here is the link to the full study, where you can read the free abstract. Note that one of the two authors, both from Stanford, is the renowned Ken Caldeira. Also, note that the publisher has provided information on 56 previous studies used as references for this one. More familiar names crop up, with titles that indicate some very interesting subject matter, links provided, and some of these will be free to read. This material will have to be taken seriously by the next IPCC report. and sooner yet by any government that is downright serious about facing the challenge.
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All about those Santa Ana winds. When they are blowing, which happens regularly in the fall, they worsen California wildfires by three or four times over while making them unstoppable. It is not certain whether the winds themselves are more frequent or more intense because of climate change but the damage they can do is potentially magnified by the kind of conditions that climate change lays out in advance of their coming.
–The Atlantic magazine has a fine feature article providing many of the details about how climate change prepares the kind of terrain that the Santa Ana winds can devastate catastrophically when they are ready to attack.
–More insights from Vox stress the many ways that humans are at fault.
–December is not even part of California’s regular fire season. Here are statistics that show how rare this event is:
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The clear truth about the need to reform land management. This recent report from Woods Hold Research Center makes the point in a concise way. It is going to take a long time for alternative energy to replace fossil fuels, time we do not really have. Reforestation and other forms of land management can accomplish a good chunk of the goal much more rapidly, with less resistance and many added benefits. This “tool” must be put to use quickly and aggressively.
Carl