A comparison of Round One and Round Two—
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This particular terminology, along with some associated imagery, just popped into my head while composing yesterday’s Climate Letter. It seemed like an apt thing to say at the moment. Later on I realized that the imagery is quite powerful, and I don’t want to promote it without good reason. Should I go ahead with it or just back off and let it die? For at least one more day I want to give it a hard look, and then decide.
In brief, Round One refers to everything humans have done to add significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere since before 1800, and will continue to do for a few more decades. You can get the numbers so far and full perspective from the links at this site: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/ Most people want to see that uplift quickly brought to an end.
Round Two is the projection of another kind of related activity, just getting underway, which carries with it an uncanny similarity to Round One in terms of expected duration and results in the atmosphere, thus potentially doubling the amount of CO2 increase within two or three centuries.
We know that Round One is a historical truth, very well studied. We still need to know how much truth is to be found in the projection of the second round, as stated above, because everything about the science that studies it is so new by comparison.
The source of CO2 in Round One has mostly been the burning of fossil fuels extracted from the earth. The source in Round Two is mostly old vegetable matter that has been concentrated and trapped in soils that have remained frozen for untold thousands or maybe even millions of years. In a sense this matter is also fossilized, with the contained carbon ready to become a fuel for the appetites of microbes if and when the soils become unfrozen. The microbes will be able to reach it in place without any need for extraction, but they first must patiently wait for the thawing to occur, whenever Nature is ready to oblige.
Thanks to all of the heat provided as a consequence of Round One, realized in full force in just the past few decades, their day has arrived. The thawing has begun, and will continue. Some researchers have performed tests indicating that a majority of the frozen soil that contains the highest concentration of plant matter will be thawed before the end of this century. This is why the next two centuries are so critical, but it is still up to the behavior of microbes to finish the job. Microbes of course do not have the same motivation as humans. We need to learn more about what motivates their response, along with all the other uncertainties.
There are sound estimates of how much carbon is locked up in frozen soils and about how much of it is capable of being exposed to consumption and release. A majority of the total is likely to remain where it is, but a substantial part should still be available for release. That is indeed quite similar to the situation with the hydrocarbons that have served as fossil fuels, except that the unused proportions may vary somewhat.
Round One should conclude with humans exporting a grand total of about 800 billion tons of carbon from the ground to the atmosphere. Due to current and projected future warming of the atmosphere that number represents about the same quantity that theoretically can be exported from soils of all types, including some that are not now frozen, but excluding methane hydrates, which have a category of their own.
The most unfortunate thing about Round Two, besides being a bigger-than-ever doomsday scenario, is that we cannot do much of anything to stop it. That could detract from the sense of need to hasten the departure of Round One, just when that sense of need was starting to grow. I would rather bet that those who have already accepted the challenge of dealing with Round One will double down, and perhaps come up with answers that we cannot now imagine.
I am going to keep looking into this.
Carl