Weather Map findings: Go to http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#T2_max (T-max) There is a new story, posted below, about the devastating effects of prolonged heat stress on human beings. This is a good place to find out who is in trouble at any one time, then for checking daily to see if they are staying in trouble. Mainly be looking for dark smudges in the red zones (around 100F) and light gray spots (around 120) within those smudges. The latter keep showing up day after day for parts of Iraq and Mali and a few more spots, but will soon finally fade. Now it’s time to start watching for how things develop in the southern hemisphere, where plenty of heavy dark smudges have already made their appearance. Not everyone in these locations has the luxury of air-conditioning.
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The heatwave problem, as covered by Thomson Reuters. This is a great story, putting heat stress in a perspective where it belongs. You can move away from rising sea level, with plenty of time to do so, and probably hide somewhere from hurricanes, but excessive heat is an even bigger threat to life. Places enduring excessive heat also seem to have greater exposure to drought, and besides that are home to many of the world’s most vulnerable people.
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Australia has had a record-breaking warm winter. Now there are worries about the prospects for extreme heat and bush fires in an early-starting summer.
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A new study revises the carbon budget for 1.5C and shows how to accomplish that goal. This story has drawn much interest on many websites. The study offers several reasons for people to be more hopeful, and deserves a careful reading, but sits behind a paywall. I have provided a link to it below, so you can read the abstract and even pick up the whole thing for a rental fee of $4.99. I would be curious to find out how the authors handle the possibility of natural feedbacks due to the warming trend that are likely to add carbon to the atmosphere on top of what humans add and thus take a bite out of the budget. Perhaps they can show that this is nothing to worry about, but that is not indicated in any of the reviews.
–Here is the link to the preview of the study itself. At the end there is a list of 54 studies that were used as references, some of which may shed light on the permafrost question and related issues.
–Richard Millar, the lead author of the study, has provided a written interpretation of the work for Carbon Brief. His conclusion—“Our results indicate that based on the current understanding of the Earth system, the window for achieving 1.5C is still narrowly open.”
–One extra comment. The carbon budget is sometimes expressed in terms of tons of carbon and at other times in tons of CO2, which are totally different numbers but close enough to cause confusion. Carbon alone is often preferred because it better acknowledges the importance of methane.
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How soil carbon loss is accelerated by global warming. This concise three-minute video is presented by the lead author of a major study of the subject, which was published in 2016. It covers soil carbon of all types and locations that are subject to warming. The post includes a link to the study, where you can read the abstract and Editor’s summary, and also view a long list of the institutions involved in making the study.
Carl