How often can you expect to see a 500-year flood? This article in Vox has all kinds of interesting commentary on the subject of flood probability. One spot in the Houston area has had three of the 500-year type in just five years. New definitions are needed, and they are likely to have an effect on things like community preparations and property insurance rates.
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How will Harvey affect what people think about the reality of climate change? Most research indicates that events of this magnitude tend to weaken the influence of those who argue on the side of skepticism. That will create a challenge for the Trump administration, which has rapidly been transforming the US government into a wing of the propaganda machine for the oil, gas and coal industries. I think it will be interesting to see if Trump decides that maybe his abandonment or the Paris agreement should be reconsidered, about which a question is sure to be asked of him within days.
–Here is how a well-known environmentalist in the UK describes the dilemma being faced in the US and elsewhere concerning the urgency of the need for much greater action:
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Now for some unexpected news of a more positive type. I have found two stories today about radical improvements in solar energy technology, both of which appear to originate from sources having high credibility. The first one is exciting because it represents a rare instance of breakthrough improvement in the direct conversion of solar energy to heat, in ways that can make it available at low cost for ordinary residential applications:
–Also, a practical new method has been found for making silicon-based PV cells with efficiencies of better than 30%, almost double that of cells now commonly installed. That means much more power can be obtained from a given amount of space, at total costs per unit of capacity expected to drop below those of today.
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An argument shows why the current rate of solar energy growth and the potential for future growth on a global scale are both being underestimated. This was before giving consideration to recent advances such as those described in the stories above. The process is enhanced by the fact that battery storage costs are falling at a rate that is complementary.
Carl