Climate Letter #904

Posted on April 28, 2017 by Carl Campbell
A fine article about the migration of species due to climate change (National Geographic).  About half of all species are on the move, everything from moose to microbes, and the trend is accelerating.  Many of the effects—mostly undesirable—are described in this article, which is based on a number of separate studies.  Climate change is not something that only people of the future have to worry about, it is here, things are happening.

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Now we have to worry about a quick revival of El Nino.  The World Meteorological Association is saying the odds are 50-60% in favor of a new event starting before the end of 2017.  Nobody expected that to happen so soon.
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A thorough analysis of current climate trends by Zeke Hausfather.  Zeke, an energy systems analyst for Berkeley Earth, is a regular contributor to Yale Climate Connections, much respected for the way he gathers and interprets facts.  Based on what he is now seeing, which includes the El Nino possibility, “estimates are that there is about a 50/50 chance that 2017 will surpass 2016 as the warmest year on record.”
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Trump is still undecided about whether the US will stay in the Paris accord.  His senior advisers are split, as described in this post which follows up from yesterday’s meeting.  I believe he will finally decide to do what Rick Perry suggests, stay in and seek to renegotiate, but that is just as complicated and unpopular as all the other essentially negative choices we are hearing about.
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An update on the geoengineering movement.  Harvard University has launched a research program of considerable size in order to quantify the risks.  “The establishment of the new Harvard program, which has raised over $7 million in seed funding so far and is backed by tech luminaries like Bill Gates, is a clear sign that geoengineering has broken into the mainstream.”  It may also be taken as a sign that the situation has become desperately serious.
Carl

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