Climate Letter #900

A review of current heat and drought conditions across India.  Everything about this year’s peak season for temperature and dryness has so far been on the extreme side, and monsoon rains with attendant cooling are not expected until June.  The entire country has had well-below-average rainfall for the past six months.

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—You can easily follow this situation daily by visiting the U of Maine’s weather maps, scrolling down to the global map.  This post starts with the “temperature” link, where you mainly look for deep red with dark smudges.  That implies an average for the day of around 100F, more in some localities, with highs reaching another 10 to 20 degrees.  Then switch to the precipitation link and check for rainfall, very rare in the hot places lately.  While doing this you can also keep track of those parts of northern Africa and Arabia that have similar conditions.
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Six thousand years ago the Sahara desert was a totally different place, with plenty of rain.  Researchers are working to improve their understanding of how tropical rain belts set up, and what makes them change.  “Tropical rain belts are tied to what happens elsewhere in the world through the Hadley circulation, but it won’t predict changes elsewhere directly, as the chain of events is very complex.”
https://phys.org/news/2016-12-years-sahara-tropicalwhat.html
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New studies concerning short-term seasonal movement of the tropical rain belt.  This post contains an image of how much it normally migrates north and south between summer and winter, along with discussion about how this movement is prone to wandering because of external changes in global climate conditions.  “In the tropics and subtropics, even tiny shifts in the position of the rain belt can trigger more frequent droughts or heavy rainfall.”

https://phys.org/news/2017-04-ice-age-displaced-tropical-belt.html

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Bill McKibben comments on the immediate effects of Trump’s environmental policies (NY Times).  Some of the momentum that was gained by the Paris talks is sure be lost, when there is no time to spare.  That loss may never be recovered, unless there is an unparalleled scale of reactions—including those of people who know better and just need to wake up.  “But even when we vote him out of office, Trumpism will persist, a dark stratum in the planet’s geological history.  In some awful sense, his term could last forever.”
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The incredible progress being demonstrated by onsite solar power generation.  “By 2020, rooftop solar in sunny areas like the US Southwest will generate electricity onsite at less than the cost of transmission and distribution.”  That does not even include the production costs of centralized utilities.  As battery storage costs come down the utility business model becomes more and more obsolete.
Carl

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