Climate Letter #301

Posted on December 22, 2014 by Carl Campbell
Another report of methane leaking from offshore permafrost. This is similar to earlier reports of leakage from more easterly parts of the Siberian shelf. The story offers a clear explanation of why there is permafrost in place under the ocean floor, and the risk of unusual thawing.

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Outlook for Alaska’s permafrost. Most of it could melt in this century. This forecast is based on using the best available models, ones that have performed well in the past. Detailed studies have been made for the future of two major parks in the state.
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Climate science. This is a fine post for anyone with an interest in the forces that govern the expansion and contraction of sea ice in the Antarctic. While complicated, it is not hard to follow this clear piece of writing. The story is completely unlike one that explains sea ice movement in the Arctic, except that human activity is now always somehow involved in both places.
Extra comment: When you have finished, open up the climate reanalyzer at
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/#. Click on Sea Surface Temperature, Anomaly, and click the image to move the view to the south pole. Notice that the entire Southern Ocean around Antarctica forms a nearly perfect circle that is all running about 1 degree C below average. It has actually been like that for several months. Then click on Average for the same area, and the Climatology baseline as well, and notice how the normal temperature gradient is almost perfectly circular. It all seems consistent with the way polar winds in that region are described, including the way they have speeded up lately.
(Make it a New Year’s resolution to open and study the Reanalyzer site every day in 2015. It will sharpen up your ability to visualize how global climate conditions keep changing.)
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Update on the divestment movement. The movement has grown significantly in the past year, and is being considered in some places in terms that go beyond simply making a moral statement. The risk of “stranded assets,” or reserves left forever in the ground, while not by any means a certainty at this point, makes these investments less attractive to anyone all by itself.
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Some advice for poiticians who are not scientists. New York’s ban on fracking, based mainly on adverse health effects, was perhaps also the biggest climate-related news of the past week
Carl

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