Climate Letter #875

Dire prospects for Egypt’s Nile River Delta.  The area suffers from decreased water flow, rising sea level and salt water intrusion.  With a population of 90 million that is projected to double over the next fifty years the country is already facing shortages of food and fresh water.

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Deadly downpours are battering Peru, expected to last through April.  The country is in the grip of a “local El Nino,” based on the presence of a large mass of warm ocean water off its coast that is unlikely to soon dissipate.  “Some scientists have said climate change will make El Ninos more frequent and intense.”  The conditions reported in this story are nearly unbelievable in their intensity.
—To see the size of the anomaly visit http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#SST_anom  (Scroll down)
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India has another kind of water crisis as groundwater suffers depletion.  A weakening of monsoon rains in recent years is partially responsible, along with excessive rates of withdrawal.
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A favorable report for energy-related global CO2 emissions, from the IEA.  There has been no growth over the past two years in spite of record economic activity, with gains in the use of renewable energy given much of the credit.  While this is a favorable sign the fact remains that atmospheric CO2 has grown by record amounts in both of these years due to emissions from other sources, mostly natural, which are difficult to identify and measure.
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An interesting analysis of global oil demand, which may reach a peak long before anyone expects, including the oil companies.  The analysis continues with the idea that once the peak in demand is reached the decline that follows may become “precipitous.”  The work has some unusual features, representing a kind of summary of a variety of types of studies from a range of different sources.
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The story of a strange geological formation in Siberia, well-illustrated.  Not climate related, but too good to pass up.
Carl

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