Climate Letter #791

Posted on November 17, 2016 by Carl Campbell
How the IEA sees the future of global coal demand.  The agency has dramatically scaled back its growth estimates but still sees twice as much demand in 2040 as required for the 2C pathway to be realized.  “This coal disparity is the largest obstacle to meeting global climate goals, the report shows.”  This is a good presentation of a complicated subject that has numerous uncertainties. Prospects for a 1.5C target are left practically out of sight.

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In Marrakech, China sends out a signal about the future of its trade relations.  This was directed to the post-Brexit UK but was no doubt meant to have a wider audience.  China wants to incorporate a commitment to low carbon policies with its trading partners, believing this is the best route to global prosperity.  (Others at Marrakech have been talking about placing special tariffs on the exports of countries that are not cooperative about reducing emissions.)
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How the recent supermoon king tide affected the US East Coast.  A story from the Washington Post about the rise in damage being done by nuisance flooding with lots of photos and videos.  “Such flooding is only expected to worsen and affect more land area in the coming decades as sea levels are projected to rise as much as several feet by the end of the century.”
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What do we really know about the Southern Ocean?  “The waters of the Southern Ocean have absorbed much of the excess heat and carbon generated by humanity.”  Now questions are being raised about how long these effects will continue.  This is a wonderfully informative article for those who have an interest in the behavior of ocean systems.
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How the influence of volcanic eruptions on global climate may change.  Some interesting research shows that when the atmosphere gets warmer it becomes harder for aerosols from volcanic eruptions to reach the stratosphere, thus reducing their cooling effect that works by reflecting sunlight.  An average of three to five eruptions each year have the power to emit gases able to reach the stratosphere.
Carl

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